Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).
These updated predictions (after the launch on 7 April 2009) use new polling data and up-to-date information about which parties and coalitions will be standing in the elections. A new section has also been added to the website, on the overall analysis page, on the possible effect of low voter turnout on the predictions. The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.
Portugal
The European elections in June in Portugal will be a dry run for the national parliamentary elections which will take place in September. The governing Socialists (PS) are currently ahead in the polls, but we expect the opposition centre-right Social Democrats (PSD) to close the gap. We predict that the PS will lose seats, however, as it performed very well in 2004. The conservative CDS-PP, which is running independently from PSD this time, should keep its two seats, and we expect this party to stay in the EPP group.
These updated predictions (after the launch on 7 April 2009) use new polling data and up-to-date information about which parties and coalitions will be standing in the elections. A new section has also been added to the website, on the overall analysis page, on the possible effect of low voter turnout on the predictions. The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.
Portugal
The European elections in June in Portugal will be a dry run for the national parliamentary elections which will take place in September. The governing Socialists (PS) are currently ahead in the polls, but we expect the opposition centre-right Social Democrats (PSD) to close the gap. We predict that the PS will lose seats, however, as it performed very well in 2004. The conservative CDS-PP, which is running independently from PSD this time, should keep its two seats, and we expect this party to stay in the EPP group.
Last update: Thursday, 21 May 2009Next update: Thursday, 4 June 2009
